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Iraq Study Group Report

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(@thecycle)
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Executive summary: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6586565
Full report: http://download.npr.org/anon.npr-www/documents/2006/dec/isg_full.pdf

Basically it says the situation is bleak, and if the US wants to have any hope in hell of success it needs to resort to things like consensus-building, negotiations, and (God forbid) diplomacy. It also says that the US government has in fact been underreporting the amount of violence that takes place in Iraq from day to day.

Personally, I like the part where it says everything Iraq war critics have been saying for the last three years.

 
(@Anonymous)
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So basically there's nothing in here we didn't know already and absolutely no new information.

Par for the course, then.

 
(@rico-underwood)
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Nothing cloudephants can't rebuke with a 4 page C&P or handful of dotcom links full of number of unknown origin.

~Rico

 
(@jimro)
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The United States should immediately launch a new diplomatic offensive to build an international consensus for stability in Iraq and the region. This diplomatic effort should include every country that has an interest in avoiding a chaotic Iraq, including all of Iraq's neighbors.

Oh yeah, Syria, Iran, etc. Those countries obviously will help stabilize Iraq into a prosperous democracy. They've been SO helpful so far.

Thank goodness we have the ISG to lead the way with sound policy like that.

Jimro

 
(@bloocheez3)
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Honestly we should really just get Iraq to the point were they are just killing themselves and not training terrorist to attack others...which is pretty much where they are now. That entire area has been fighting each other since the Old Testament days, there is no amount of talking that will help. It's not enough that they are all Arab (except Iran), and Muslim. They STILL find a way to divide and hate each other. Also they hate the US and its allies because we help Israel, and they all hate Jews.

 
(@Anonymous)
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My mom also suggested to me in a gigglefit that they should have them destroy themselves. It was cuter coming from her.

 
(@thecycle)
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They STILL find a way to divide and hate each other.
This sets them apart from other portions of the human population how?

 
(@toby-underwood)
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Because when Bush/Fundies say its ok to hate certain kinds of people, thats different. You know, cause they heard it straight from God.

~Tobe

 
(@bloocheez3)
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Because they are ALL Arab, they are ALL Muslim and they are still able to zero in their extreme hate beyond simple racial or religious levels. The Shi'a and the Sunni differ on the same regard like Protestants and Catholics, but were as the the different Christians have for the most part coexisted (with only the occasional violent outbreak), the Muslims hate with an intensity that has lasted for over a thousand years.

 
(@thecycle)
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...

what

 
(@sandygunfox)
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The report is nothing new. No, what I like is the name. "Iraq Study Group?"

<i>Study group?</i> Are we fighting a war or sponsoring a focus group?! and as for your summary, you act like the US isn't trying diplomatic measures, never did try diplomatic measures, and we're the ones not negotiating, rather than them being the ones not negotiating. D:

 
(@Anonymous)
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Totally, SX. We must cut off financing for all other activities while there is a war.

 
(@Anonymous)
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Cheezit, go back to ranting about how much Sonic music sucks and let the adults discuss political and social matters too complex for your FOX-corrupted little mind.

Go on, now, that's a good boy.

 
(@thecycle)
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and as for your summary, you act like the US isn't trying diplomatic measures, never did try diplomatic measures, and we're the ones not negotiating, rather than them being the ones not negotiating.
The US demonstrated nothing but contempt for diplomacy in lead-up to the war, and has adopted the "we don't negotiate with them there terrists" mantra ever since.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Quote:


The US demonstrated nothing but contempt for diplomacy in lead-up to the war, and has adopted the "we don't negotiate with them there terrists" mantra ever since.


Refresh my memory; just how many UN Resolutions did we go through before something besides making another resolution was done?

 
(@sandygunfox)
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Acrio, that made absolutely no sense to me.

 
(@Anonymous)
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lol

 
(@thecycle)
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Refresh my memory; just how many UN Resolutions did we go through before something besides making another resolution was done?
The Bush administration had been planning the assault since before they even took office. They had no genuine interest in participating in those resolutions and were focused solely on going to war as soon as they felt they could get away with it.

Having said that, Saddam is gone. The US is dealing with a completely different problem than it was back then: right now you're looking at a country that has, for all intents and purposes, descended into all-out civil war. No matter what they do, the likelihood of a happy ending to this chapter of history is virtually zero. However, if the US wants to have a hope in hell of at least stopping the fighting and securing the region, they're going to have to negotiate with a lot of people they don't like. It's ugly, but it's the only option with any chance of success. Sending in more men with guns is just going to make more terrorists, and get more people killed.

 
(@bloocheez3)
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Fox news corrupted? How about you offer an argument not inspired by the Daily Show Bat. Fox has nothing to do the fact that the Muslims hate each other as much as, if not more than, they do the "infidels". Jews being the top on their hate list though, and why they single out America as the biggest evil in the world. America has backs Israel and that pisses the Islamic nations off. They see it as a Muslim problem that should only be dealt with on there own. Saudi Arabia even said that if the US pulls out, they will jump into the Muslim-on-Muslim killing.

 
(@jimro)
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There you go again Cycle, talking out your...

Quote:


The Bush administration had been planning the assault since before they even took office. They had no genuine interest in participating in those resolutions and were focused solely on going to war as soon as they felt they could get away with it.


Why don't you just slip me the winning MegaMillions numbers since you know everything?

Jimro

 
(@Anonymous)
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13 54 2 8 43 25

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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*goes off to get rich*

On a side note, lookie at what I found.

Here's some summaries from the May 2006 report.

1.) Twelve provinces, containing more than 50% of the population, experienced only 6% of all attacks., pg. 3

2.) That is to say, that half the population never sees violence 94% of the time. Hardly sounds like a descent into chaos, does it?, pg. 3

3.) Far from being a madhouse of fighting, more than 80% of terrorist attacks were concentrated in just 4 of Iraq's 18 provinces., pg. 3

4.) On May 20, 2006 there was a successful Vote of Confidence for the new Prime Minister, his Cabinet, and his Program, pg. 2

5.) This Vote of Confidence was for the government created by the Dec 15, 2005 elections, in which 77% of the people voted., pg. 3

6.) The total number of Iraqi soldiers and police who have completed initial training and equipping is approximately 263,400, an increase of about 36,100 since the last report (Feb 06)., pg. 4

7.) As of May 2006 there were 268 Independent Newspapers and Magazines, 114 Commercial radio stations, and 54 Commercial television stations in Iraq. -graph, pg. 13

8.) There are only 800 qualified, independant judges in Iraq's legal system nationwide, with an estimated need for 1200. However 150 new judges will graduate from a two year training program in 2007, and 150 more judges will then begin the program, working steadily to provide Iraq with the qualified judges a robust legal system needs., pg. 13

9.) Hardly a month goes by without threats or acts of violence targeting judges, however security for judges has been enhanced (housing, security details, etc.) and now attacks on judges are down 47% from May 2005., pg. 14

10.) "The international donor community, apart from U.S. contributions, has pledged $13.5 billion in assistance, much of it in the form of low-interest loans; as of March 2006, more than $3.5 billion had been disbursed."-direct quote, pg. 17

11.) "The Iraqi government continues to make progress in reducing its external debt. Iraqs high level of Saddam-era debt (approximately $125 billion) precluded it from borrowing abroad and levied an unmanageable burden on its economy. The agreement of Paris Club members (plus Korea) in November 2004 to reduce their claims on Iraq by 80%, combined with similar treatment from non-Paris Club creditors, will help bring Iraqs debt to sustainable levels. Thus far, Iraq has qualified for a 60% reduction in Paris Club claims and will qualify for an additional 20% reduction after three years of successful performance under the Stand-By Arrangement and successor arrangements. As of May 2006, 17 of the 18 Paris Club creditors had signed such agreements."-direct quote, pg. 19

12.) "There is evidence Iraqi private sector activity continues to expand. U.S. Government agencies attempt to spur private sector activity with microfinance loans, bank lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises, capital market development, business skills development, vocational training, investment promotion, business center support, and creation of economic zones." -direct quote, pg. 22

13.) There were a total of about 34,000 newly registered businesses in Iraq by March 2006, up from a total of about 25,000 in March 2005. -graph, pg. 22

14.) "More than $1 billion in electricity projects have been completed. An additional $1.1 billion worth of projects will increase transmission stability and add 500 MW of generating capacity."- direct quote, pg. 24

15.) "..as of April 28, 2006, there were 6.4 million cellular telephone subscribers and 1.0 million landline connections. This reflects a 30% increase in cellular subscribers since the last report and more than a 200% increase in telephone access since the end of 2004." -direct quote, pg. 26

16.) In March 2006 there were 4578 actionable tips received from the population by Iraqi security forces. That's 10 times more calls that people were willing to make to the government than the same time a year ago (Mar 2005 had only 483 actionable tips) -graph, pg. 45

17.) "Through U.S. Government-funded water projects, large- and small-scale water treatment facilities have been rehabilitated or constructed, expanding access to potable water for an estimated 3 million people at a standard level of service. More projects planned or under way will provide access to clean water to an additional 5.4 million people at a standard level of service and will also improve the water supply for rural residents." -direct quote, pg. 27

18.) "More Iraqis have access to sewage collection and treatment today than in 2003. More than 5.1 million people have access to sewage service." -direct quote, pg. 27

Finally there's this long blurb about what kind of training the new Iraqi soldiers are receiving, it is well balanced and extensive:

19.) "The basic training system, consolidated under the command of the Iraqi Training Brigade, continues to develop, and training has continued apace. All three Iraqi Training Battalions are now formed and fully operational. This has significantly increased the Iraqis ability to train capable soldiers in sufficient quantities for force generation and replacement needs. New recruits continue to attend a 5-week program of instruction at the Kirkush Military Training Base and An-Numiniyah. Upon graduation, they receive additional specialty training. Depending on their military occupational skill assignment, the training varies from three to seven weeks. This specialized training develops infantry, armor, administration, communications, transportation, maintenance, and military police skills, among others. Other training initiatives, such as the Military Intelligence School, the Signal School, the Bomb Disposal School, the Combat Arms Branch School, the Engineer School, and the Military Police School, contribute to the professionalization of the Iraqi Army through teaching diverse soldier specialties necessary to conduct and sustain counter-insurgency operations." -direct quote, pg. 54

The second half of the report is all about the military situation in Iraq (pages 46-62). Who the enemy is (rejectionists, former regime loyalists, al qaida), what patterns their attacks have been trending to, and which enemy performs which actions. If you have an interest in a very detailed (and, of course, unclassified) view of the military situation in Iraq, read the second half of the report starting on page 46.

The last three pages address conditions for withdrawal, and basically say those conditions must not be based on any set timetable, but instead be a reaction to realities on the ground, otherwise ultimate success will be compromised.

In summary, the Report on Progress concludes with this lengthy excerpt:

20.) "Arbitrary deadlines or timetables for withdrawal of Coalition forcesdivorced from conditions in Iraq and the regionwould be a serious strategic error, as they would suggest to the terrorists, Saddamists, and Rejectionists that they can simply wait to win. No war has ever been won on a timetable, and neither will this one. Lack of a timetable, however, does not mean that the Coalitions posture in Iraq is static. On the contrary, the Coalition continually adjusts its posture and approaches as conditions evolve and Iraqi capabilities grow.

As Iraqis take on more responsibility for security, Coalition forces will increasingly move to supporting roles in many areas.

As security conditions improve and as the Iraqi Security Forces become more capable of securing their own country, Coalition forces will move out of the cities, provide transition teams, reduce the number of bases from which they operate, and conduct fewer visible missions, but remain postured to assist. Although the Coalition military presence may become less visible, it will remain lethal and decisive, able to confront the enemy wherever it may gather and organize...

Coalition troop levels will increase if necessary to defeat the enemy or to provide additional security for key events, like the recent referendum and elections. But the goal, over time, is to reduce Coalition forces as Iraqis continue to take on more of the security and civilian responsibilities themselves. " -direct quote, pgs. 64,65

xxxx

Hmm. Interesting, no?

*hops on over to read the November 2006 edition*

 
(@sandygunfox)
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I think it's odd that a more or less correct thing takes so long a post even I didn't read it; yet the stupidest political opinions I've ever heard (I've met people who seriously, no-sh*t think Bush was planning to invade before 9/11, to get revenge because hsi father din't get Saddam when he had the chance.) can be summed up in a single sentence.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Some summaries from the November 2006 report...

1.) Prime Minister Nuri al-Malikis National Reconciliation and Dialogue Project, designed to initiate negotiations between religious and tribal leaders, has met little progress due to sectarian violence delaying almost all of the meetings., pg. 4

2.) Domestic issues also need addressing; less Iraqis have confidence in their government than during the July 2006 report., pg. 4-5

3.) Oil production is now at 2.3 million barrels per day, a 7.5% increase since August 2006. Oil exports are at 1.6 million bpd. Due to higher market prices for crude oil, revenues exceeded annual targets by US$1.7 billion through the end of October., pg. 5, 17

4.) Iraq averages 11 hours of power nationwide for the reporting period; in October 2006, the average was 12.2 hours. Average peak output for electricity was 4,650 megawatts. I wonder how much the averages are skewed when the more peaceful provinces are grouped with the more chaotic ones?, pg. 5

5.) Terrorist attacks increased 22% during the previous three-month period, some of which may be due to Ramadan. Am I the only one who finds it odd that - despite being an Islamic holy month stressing prayer, fasting, charity, and self-accountability - terrorist attacks always seem to become greater in number during Ramadan?, pg. 6

6.) 54% of all attacks occurred in Baghdad and Anbar, 2 of the 18 Iraqi provinces., pg. 6

7.) With the 45,000 Iraqi soldiers and police trained from August 2006, the trained and equipped manpower of the Iraqi Security Forces comes to 322,600., pg. 6

8.) 104 Iraqi Army combat battalions, two Special Operations
Battalions, and six Strategic Infrastructure Battalions are under the command of the Iraqi Ground Forces Command and are conducting their own operations., pg. 6

9.) On September 21, Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I) turned control of the Dhi Qar province's security over to the Provincial government and the civilian-controlled police. Dhi Qar is the second province to make the move to Provincial Iraqi control., pg. 7

10.) To meet demands of the legal courts - there are currently 800 investigative and trial judges and 100 courts - the Ministry of Justice has set a goal for 700 judicial investigators by 2007 and a goal for 1,000 in 2008., pg. 11

11.) "Foreign Interference. Iran and Syria are undermining the Government of Iraqs political progress by providing both active and passive support to antigovernment and anti-Coalition forces. The Coalition and the Government of Iraq have attempted to counter Iranian and Syrian influence diplomatically and by tightening security at the borders. Eliminating the smuggling of material and foreign fighters into Iraq is a critical task and a formidable challenge." -direct quote, pg. 12

12.) The estimated 2005 nominal GDP, in USD billion, is 34.5. The projected 2006 total is 47.0., pg. 15

13.) Unemployment totals are reported to be between 13.4% - 18%., pg. 16

14.) From pg. 21;

More to come later, if I have the time.

 
(@sandygunfox)
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Dude if your FIRST post was too long, why would this one not be?

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Quote:


Dude if your FIRST post was too long, why would this one not be?


Was I complaining about the length? o.o;

 
(@sandygunfox)
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It doesn't matter if you think it's too long; it matters if the people the post was intended to be read by think it's too long. A few people came in Chat and just tl;dr'd your post.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Oh for...GAH!

That's the problem.

People have NO PATIENCE.

 
(@jimro)
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Total a post in CHAT?

Cheese and rice on a cracker.

I can imagine it now...

Quote:


WhineyLib13:OMB Ultra's post totally suxors!
Demsrool21:ROTFLOL yeah you pAwNeD him!
RicoSuave5:and don't forget Jimro has an anti-Gay agenda!
WhineyLib13:Yeah he suxors too!


How can people who complain about the length of a post have the patience and discipline to argue that post? It boggles the mind.

Jimro

 
(@Anonymous)
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They don't. This is Marble Garden, expect to run into a couple gnomes.

 
(@toby-underwood)
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Jimro, you don't have an agenda, you're just a bigot. ;)

~Tobe

 
(@Anonymous)
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gnomist

 
(@toby-underwood)
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spammer

 
(@jimro)
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Quote:


Jimro, you don't have an agenda, you're just a bigot. ;)


There's one for the memory books.

Anyways it seems that more Saudis, Iraqis, and Iranians paid attention to the ISG report than Americans. The Saudis are particularly concerned.

Jimro

 
(@veckums)
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I read Ultra's post. Well, the 2nd one. Lots of chatters don't get people who post in debates so I'm not surprised they said tl;dr, but it's not really something that should come up here because their opinion is pretty irrelevant to the conversation.

Handing over some of the Iraq war to Syria and Iran seems to be a desperation move and passing the buck rather than dealing with the problem, and I suspect 2 shiia countries taking over would probably incite more minority sunni violence.

Democracy is not freedom, simply a way to make the government more accountable. Bush does not understand this. As I've said protection of the minority should be a higher priority, because democracy gives sunnis reason to expect opression. Did democracy magically stop the IRA terrorism between catholics and protestants? That has only recently (as far as I know) settled down.

Basically everything I debated 3 or 4 years ago has come true, except the incompetence and corruption has been on a scale even I in my extreme anti-Bush opinion didn't imagine. At what point can it be admitted that the anti-war argument might have made some sense?

 
(@jimro)
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The Anti war argument usually boils down to "it costs too much".

Democracy may not be freedom, heck freedom in extreme is anarchy. But it seems that the anti war argument will ignore any sign of progress and yell "quagmire" at the drop of a hat.

In WWII we were stuck for six weeks in France in a small pocket of land around the Normandy landing sights. Now a three day stop on the roll to Baghdad is called a "quagmire".

The things that we associate with freedom, civil rights, a robust economy, rule of law, were not developed overnight. Both Germany and Japan had us bases after the war that were a MAJOR source of money for the rebuilding nations.

We've been "stuck in Bosnia/Kosovo" for HOW long now? Why isn't that called a "quagmire"?

The level of violence in Iraq is mainly from two sources. External terrorists who want to kill Americans. External terrorists who want to establish sharia law.

If the bad guys want Iraq to fail, we need to work even harder to make Iraq succede. Yes people will continue to die. Yes some contractors will be less than ethical. Will it be worth it? I believe so.

Jimro

 
(@sandygunfox)
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I wasn't saying he should never post more than a little post, but it seems o.oable to post a huge reply to a two-sentence post, then follow it up with an even bigger post.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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It wasn't so much a reply to the previous conversation as it was me posting something I'd found.

 
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