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Climategate (and Copenhagen: see post #21)

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(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Anybody heard about this?

The basic summary is that earlier this month, thousands of e-mails were leaked from the Climatic Research Unit, which provides many bodies such as the IPCC data and results regarding global warming, which is then used for policy. The leaker, be it a hacker, whistleblower, or otherwise, has not been identified. These e-mails revealed collusion to prevent raw data from being leaked, attempts at crowding out dissenting scientific opinion, and talking of influencing peer-reviewed journals, among other things. These e-mails were admitted to be legitimate, hence the controversy.

Here's a take on it from RealClearPolitics.

By Robert Tracinski

In early October, I covered a breaking story about evidence of corruption in the basic temperature records maintained by key scientific advocates of the theory of man-made global warming. Global warming "skeptics" had unearthed evidence that scientists at the Hadley Climatic Research Unit at Britain's University of East Anglia had cherry-picked data to manufacture a "hockey stick" graph showing a dramatic-but illusory-runaway warming trend in the late 20th century.

But now newer and much broader evidence has emerged that looks like it will break that scandal wide open. Pundits have already named it "Climategate."

A hacker-or possibly a disillusioned insider-has gathered thousands of e-mails and data from the CRU and made them available on the Web. Officials at the CRU have verified the breach of their system and acknowledged that the e-mails appear to be genuine.

Yes, this is a theft of data-but the purpose of the theft was to blow the whistle on a much bigger, more brazen crime. The CRU has already called in the police to investigate the hacker. But now someone needs to call in the cops to investigate the CRU.

Australian journalist Andrew Bolt has a good overview of the story, with a selection of incriminating e-mails that have already been discovered in the hacked data. Note that these e-mails reveal more than just what it going on at the CRU, since they involve numerous leading British and American climate scientists outside of the CRU.

These e-mails show, among many other things, private admissions of doubt or scientific weakness in the global warming theory. In acknowledging that global temperatures have actually declined for the past decade, one scientist asks, "where the heck is global warming?... The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." They still can't account for it; see a new article in Der Spiegel: "Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out." I don't know where these people got their scientific education, but where I come from, if your theory can't predict or explain the observed facts, it's wrong.

More seriously, in one e-mail, a prominent global warming alarmist admits to using a statistical "trick" to "hide the decline" in temperatures. Anthony Watts provides an explanation of this case in technical detail; the "trick" consists of selectively mixing two different kinds of data-temperature "proxies" from tree rings and actual thermometer measurements-in a way designed to produce a graph of global temperatures that ends the way the global warming establishment wants it to: with an upward "hockey stick" slope.

Confirming the earlier scandal about cherry-picked data, the e-mails show CRU scientists conspiring to evade legal requests, under the Freedom of Information Act, for their underlying data. It's a basic rule of science that you don't just get to report your results and ask other people to take you on faith. You also have to report your data and your specific method of analysis, so that others can check it and, yes, even criticize it. Yet that is precisely what the CRU scientists have refused.

But what stood out most for me was extensive evidence of the hijacking of the "peer review" process to enforce global warming dogma. Peer review is the practice of subjecting scientific papers to review by other scientists with relevant expertise before they can be published in professional journals. The idea is to weed out research with obvious flaws or weak arguments, but there is a clear danger that such a process will simply reinforce groupthink. If it is corrupted, peer review can be a mechanism for an entrenched establishment to exclude legitimate challenges by simply refusing to give critics a hearing.

And that is precisely what we find.

In response to an article challenging global warming that was published in the journal Climate Research, CRU head Phil Jones complains that the journal needs to "rid themselves of this troublesome editor"-hopefully not through the same means used by Henry II's knights. Michael Mann replies:

I think we have to stop considering "Climate Research" as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal.

Note the circular logic employed here. Skepticism about global warming is wrong because it is not supported by scientific articles in "legitimate peer-reviewed journals." But if a journal actually publishes such an article, then it is by definition not "legitimate."

You can also see from these e-mails the scientists' panic at any dissent appearing in the scientific literature. When another article by a skeptic was published in Geophysical Research Letters, Michael Mann complains, "It's one thing to lose Climate Research. We can't afford to lose GRL." Another CRU scientist, Tom Wigley, suggests that they target another troublesome editor: "If you think that Saiers is in the greenhouse skeptics camp, then, if we can find documentary evidence of this, we could go through official AGU channels to get him ousted." That's exactly what they did, and a later e-mail boasts that "The GRL leak may have been plugged up now w/new editorial leadership there."

Not content to block out all dissent from scientific journals, the CRU scientists also conspired to secure friendly reviewers who could be counted on to rubber-stamp their own work. Phil Jones suggests such a list to Kevin Trenberth, with the assurance that "All of them know the sorts of things to say...without any prompting."

So it's no surprise when another e-mail refers to an attempt to keep inconvenient scientific findings out of a UN report: "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. K and I will keep them out somehow-even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" Think of all of this the next time you hear someone invoke the authority of peer review-or of the UN's IPCC reports-as backing for claims about global warming.

This scandal goes beyond scientific journals and into other media used to promote the global warming dogma. For example, RealClimate.org has been billed as an objective website at which global warming activists and skeptics can engage in an impartial debate. But in the CRU e-mails, the global warming establishment boasts that RealClimate is in their pocket.

I wanted you guys to know that you're free to use RC in any way you think would be helpful. Gavin and I are going to be careful about what comments we screen through.... We can hold comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they should be screened through or not, and if so, any comments you'd like us to include.

[T]hink of RC as a resource that is at your disposal.... We'll use our best discretion to make sure the skeptics don't get to use the RC comments as a megaphone.

And anyone doubting that the mainstream media is in on it, too, should check out New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin's toadying apologia for the CRU e-mails, masquerading as a news report.

The picture that emerges is simple. In any discussion of global warming, either in the scientific literature or in the mainstream media, the outcome is always predetermined. Just as the temperature graphs produced by the CRU are always tricked out to show an upward-sloping "hockey stick," every discussion of global warming has to show that it is occurring and that humans are responsible. And any data or any scientific paper that tends to disprove that conclusion is smeared as "unscientific" precisely because it threatens the established dogma.

For more than a decade, we've been told that there is a scientific "consensus" that humans are causing global warming, that "the debate is over" and all "legitimate" scientists acknowledge the truth of global warming. Now we know what this "consensus" really means. What it means is: the fix is in.

This is an enormous case of organized scientific fraud, but it is not just scientific fraud. It is also a criminal act. Suborned by billions of taxpayer dollars devoted to climate research, dozens of prominent scientists have established a criminal racket in which they seek government money-Phil Jones has raked in a total of £13.7 million in grants from the British government-which they then use to falsify data and defraud the taxpayers. It's the most insidious kind of fraud: a fraud in which the culprits are lauded as public heroes. Judging from this cache of e-mails, they even manage to tell themselves that their manipulation of the data is intended to protect a bigger truth and prevent it from being "confused" by inconvenient facts and uncontrolled criticism.

The damage here goes far beyond the loss of a few billions of taxpayer dollars on bogus scientific research. The real cost of this fraud is the trillions of dollars of wealth that will be destroyed if a fraudulent theory is used to justify legislation that starves the global economy of its cheapest and most abundant sources of energy.

This is the scandal of the century. It needs to be thoroughly investigated-and the culprits need to be brought to justice.

The article by Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun that was cited is here. Some of the e-mails are cited there, and some are quite the eye-opener.

On top of all this, breaking earlier today by the Times Online, we see that much of the raw data has been discarded and thrown away, which is a scientific faux pas of the highest order.

Thoughts?

 
(@jinsoku_1722027870)
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AUGH. Yuku ate my reply.

ANYWAY,

This is crappy news. While I still think it's at least good nature to "think green", I don't believe it should be forced down our throats if the evidence is proving lacking, behind, or outright false. Why not education about not polluting and not killing off all the trees and replanting, so on and so forth, instead of scare mongering? Very disappointing if this is 100% true.

I wonder what Al Gore thinks.

...

I wan't Captain Planet back.

 
(@toby-underwood)
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So now the only reason we have to lower pollution is non-mutated animals, healthy kids, breathable air, and our own volition? D:

~Tobe

 
(@d-b-vulpix)
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Captain Planet: Protect the Enviroment or I'll ****ing kill you!

 
(@mobius-springheart_1722585714)
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Captain Planet: Protect the Enviroment or I'll ****ing kill you!

...SOMEBODY MAKE A POSTER OF THIS NAO!

 
(@matt7325)
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Australian journalist Andrew Bolt

Sorry, but just about any Australian can tell you that "journalist" is a very generous term for this guy. Hate-mongering pundit might be a more apt description. He's a one-man FOX News (and I mean that with as much offence as possible).

That being said, I've never had much of an opinion on the existence of climate change one way or another, for the sole reason that it shouldn't matter. Taking care of the environment in a sustainable manner should just be common sense, not a reaction to the threat of impending global disaster. So many dissenters of climate change just seemed to come across as not wanting to take accountability for their own rubbish (both figuratively and literally).

 
(@d-b-vulpix)
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That's not true. I'm against these people because what they stand for has nothing at all to do with protecting the environment. It's more about controlling us through fear and guilt.

 
(@sonicv2)
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Yes cause trying to live in a world that transformed into Venus isn't scary at all.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Yes cause trying to live in a world that transformed into Venus isn't scary at all.

The reason why this event should be unsettling to a lot of people is because it raises a lot of questions about whether or not anything we've been doing has had a positive effect (which, given a lack of raw data, we can't replicate results one way or another with any degree of accuracy). Pollution in general is one thing, but in attempts at minimizing CO2 emissions out of a belief that it would 'stop global warming', what if minimizing the amount of CO2 has had a negative effect on flora that need CO2? By focusing on trying to alter or control the climate (which IMHO reeks of hubris), have we dropped the ball on preparing measures focused on adaptation to climate change (because if an Ice Age comes, it'll come regardless of what we do, short of anything the Legion of Doom would plan in the Superfriends)? In attempting to launch a Green Movement all over the world in the aim of 'saving the planet', what will this mean for Third World countries trying to modernize and raise their standard of living?

Without scientifically-sound results, government policy regarding climate change loses its foundation and becomes ideologically based. On the basis of hysterical speculations on which there is no raw data, we expect to deal with global taxation, micro-regulation of every aspect of our lives, massive multi-trillion dollar transfers from the productive sector to eco-rackets and transnational bureaucracies, and levies on bovine flatulence. (One example of many: how does a carbon card that places a limit on purchasing gasoline, airline tickets, or electricity usage sound? Sounds pretty good to a British parliamentary committee, apparently.)

Note that I am in no way arguing for willy-nilly antics on par with Captain Planet villains. Nonetheless, the measures being propagated by national governments and international bodies are knee-jerk, far-reaching, aimed at increasing bureaucratic control over the lives of individuals, and, as of Climategate, lacking scientific merit.

 
(@trudi-speed)
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Your source is well known for overreacting to and exaggerating events. Trust me, I know. My parents read it. I see what sort of rubbish it prints every day. As much as the Daily Mail is running around wailing about how MPs are out to get the good old British Public, the card thing won't happen for a very long while. Unless the EU make us use it of course!
I do agree that people are scaremongering somewhat though. I mean, have you seen this advert?

 
(@shifty)
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You cannot convince me that politics are crooked. Do you think I am 5? Think hard the next time you try and make a topic aimed at 5 year-olds. Because you offended me.

"wether we try to avoide it or not we all ate insects."-sonicsfan1991

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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I will grant you that with regards to the Daily Mail, though it isn't the first time Parliament has considered the carbon card issue (reported by the Guardian). It's to exhibit the point of how downright loony some of the measures being suggested are.

At any rate, with regards to climate change ads, I've yet to see anything that matches the shock value of this ad. (Potentially NSFW: features polar bears.)

 
(@d-b-vulpix)
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Everytime you exhale...a polar bear...falls from the sky? wtf?!?! *splat!*

i dont get it, it's like...
Do they really think that over all the earth's history...everything's just been the same?
Nature's never had any changes at all whatsoever? Ecosystems have never ever adapted to anything?
That the earth's homeostatic system has no ability to compensate for anything at all? Even the Ice Age movies make more sense than this ad does.

 
(@shigeru-akari)
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Humans have an effect on the environment. It doesn't matter who wants to admit it or not, but we all have an effect of some kind.

 
(@sonicv2)
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<strong class="quote-title" B Vulpix wrote:


Everytime you exhale...a polar bear...falls from the sky? wtf?!?! *splat!*

i dont get it, it's like...
Do they really think that over all the earth's history...everything's just been the same?
Nature's never had any changes at all whatsoever? Ecosystems have never ever adapted to anything?
That the earth's homeostatic system has no ability to compensate for anything at all? Even the Ice Age movies make more sense than this ad does.

There's a difference between the Nature changing on its own naturally and nature changing due to effects of 6 billion + creatures meddling with it.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Humans have an effect on the environment. It doesn't matter who wants to admit it or not, but we all have an effect of some kind.

Who's saying we aren't? There's great debate over how much or how little of an impact we're having, and how much we are impacting the Earth relative to other factors (the Sun, changes in tectonic plates, volcanic activity, etc.). Not only that, but weighing the scales between human development versus environmental impact.

That's not the issue here: the issue is that we have so-called scientists making dire proclamations about the climate (which is then cited as the reason to implement grand regulatory policies that affect the lives of millions) that are not only turning out to be dubious in nature, but have no scientific foundation to stand on (without most of the 150+ years of raw data and the particular code they use to analyze and interpret the data, how can their results be replicated? They can't).

In other words, they're just saying "Trust us."

 
(@shigeru-akari)
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Gah, forgot I was going to add to that post.

 
(@d-b-vulpix)
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http://news.google.com/ne...irector+steps+down This is pretty interesting.

 
(@robobotnik)
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I've been avoiding commenting on the matter since I'm not an expert nor am I that knowledgeble on all that's occured. I'm still going to avoid saying what I feel since I really don't currently, I'm not going to start driving a gas guzzler, litter, avoid recycling cans, etc, so it doesn't really affect me.

That said I did find this video somewhat enlightening on the whole subject.

It's worth a watch, whether you accept global warming or not, just to take a look at how short sighted the media is at least.

 
(@lighty)
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Jeez... just wait til they find out they're hiding all the alien related stuff.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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An interesting video Robobotnik. Though to be fair, the real issue is not with the word 'trick', but in what the trick in this particular incident is regarding the infamous 'hockey stick graph'.

Upon further reflection regarding this incident, let's recap what we've learned about CRU from the leaked e-mails:

1) The scientists colluded in efforts to thwart Freedom of Information Act requests (across continents no less). They reference deleting data, hiding source code from requests, manipulating data to make it more annoying to use, and attempting to deny requests from people recognized as contributors to specific internet sites.

2) These scientists publicly diminished opposing arguments for lack of being published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. In the background they discussed black-balling journals that did publish opposing views, and preventing opposing views from being published in journals they controlled. They even mention changing the rules midstream in arenas they control to ensure opposing views would not see the light of day. They discuss amongst themselves which scientists can be trusted and who should be excluded from having data because they may not be "predictable".

3) The scientists expressed concern privately (key word being private) over a lack of increase in global temperatures in the last decade, and the fact that they could not explain this. Publicly they discounted it as simple natural variations (and in light of the video Robo posted, these private concerns of some at CRU was an area of disagreement). In one instance, data was [apparently] manipulated to hide a decline in temperatures when graphed. Other discussions included ways to discount historic warming trends that inconveniently did not occur during increases in atmospheric CO2.

4) The e-mails show examples of top scientists working to create public relations messaging with favorable news outlets. It shows them identifying and cataloging, by name and association, people with opposing views. These people are then disparaged in a coordinated fashion via favorable online communities.

What the e-mails/files don't do is completely destroy the possibility that global climate change is real. They don't preclude many studies from being accurate, on either side of the discussion.

And in light of how some are responding, they should not be seen as discrediting all science.

The Times: UK Met Office to re-examine 160 years of climate data

The Met Office plans to re-examine 160 years of temperature data after admitting that public confidence in the science on man-made global warming has been shattered by leaked e-mails.

The new analysis of the data will take three years, meaning that the Met Office will not be able to state with absolute confidence the extent of the warming trend until the end of 2012.

The Met Office database is one of three main sources of temperature data analysis on which the UN's main climate change science body relies for its assessment that global warming is a serious danger to the world. This assessment is the basis for next week's climate change talks in Copenhagen aimed at cutting CO2 emissions.

The Government is attempting to stop the Met Office from carrying out the re-examination, arguing that it would be seized upon by climate change sceptics.

The Met Office works closely with the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), which is being investigated after e-mails written by its director, Phil Jones, appeared to show an attempt to manipulate temperature data and block alternative scientific views.

The Met Office's published data showing a warming trend draws heavily on CRU analysis. CRU supplied all the land temperature data to the Met Office, which added this to its own analysis of sea temperature data.

Since the stolen e-mails were published, the chief executive of the Met Office has written to national meteorological offices in 188 countries asking their permission to release the raw data that they collected from their weather stations.

The Met Office is confident that its analysis will eventually be shown to be correct. However, it says it wants to create a new and fully open method of analysing temperature data.

The development will add to fears that influential sceptics in other countries, including the US and Australia, are using the controversy to put pressure on leaders to resist making ambitious deals for cutting CO2.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change admitted yesterday that it needed to consider the full implications of the e-mails and whether they cast doubt on any of the evidence for man-made global warming.

 
(@ultra-sonic-007)
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Bump for a different but related topic: Copenhagen (which I've taken to calling Carbonhagen given the abundance of private jets and limos at the event).

The premise of the upcoming conference in Copenhagen is that it's time to get a global agreement down to reduce carbon emissions and regulate activity for the sake of preventing climate catastrophe (which, in the light of Climategate, is being somewhat ridiculed, but that's beside the point here).

Then the Guardian received a leak of a Danish text that apparently held a preliminary agreement.

Well...I'll just let this write-up from a Taiwanese news site say it.

Copenhagen climate summit in disarray after 'Danish text' leak 西方密商"丹麥提案" 訂立二氧化碳排放量雙重標準

Copenhagen climate summit in disarray after 'Danish text' leak 提案全文見文末連結

Developing countries react furiously to leaked draft agreement that would hand more power to rich nations, sideline the UN's negotiating role and abandon the Kyoto protocol

The UN Copenhagen climate talks are in disarray today after developing countries reacted furiously to leaked documents that show world leaders will next week be asked to sign an agreement that hands more power to rich countries and sidelines the UN's role in all future climate change negotiations.

The document is also being interpreted by developing countries as setting unequal limits on per capita carbon emissions for developed and developing countries in 2050; meaning that people in rich countries would be permitted to emit nearly twice as much under the proposals.

The so-called Danish text, a secret draft agreement worked on by a group of individuals known as "the circle of commitment" - but understood to include the UK, US and Denmark - has only been shown to a handful of countries since it was finalised this week.

The agreement, leaked to the Guardian, is a departure from the Kyoto protocol's principle that rich nations, which have emitted the bulk of the CO2, should take on firm and binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gases, while poorer nations were not compelled to act. The draft hands effective control of climate change finance to the World Bank; would abandon the Kyoto protocol - the only legally binding treaty that the world has on emissions reductions; and would make any money to help poor countries adapt to climate change dependent on them taking a range of actions.

The document was described last night by one senior diplomat as "a very dangerous document for developing countries. It is a fundamental reworking of the UN balance of obligations. It is to be superimposed without discussion on the talks".

A confidential analysis of the text by developing countries also seen by the Guardian shows deep unease over details of the text. In particular, it is understood to:

• Force developing countries to agree to specific emission cuts and measures that were not part of the original UN agreement;

• Divide poor countries further by creating a new category of developing countries called "the most vulnerable";

• Weaken the UN's role in handling climate finance;

• Not allow poor countries to emit more than 1.44 tonnes of carbon per person by 2050, while allowing rich countries to emit 2.67 tonnes.

Developing countries that have seen the text are understood to be furious that it is being promoted by rich countries without their knowledge and without discussion in the negotiations.

"It is being done in secret. Clearly the intention is to get [Barack] Obama and the leaders of other rich countries to muscle it through when they arrive next week. It effectively is the end of the UN process," said one diplomat, who asked to remain nameless.

Antonio Hill, climate policy adviser for Oxfam International, said: "This is only a draft but it highlights the risk that when the big countries come together, the small ones get hurting. On every count the emission cuts need to be scaled up. It allows too many loopholes and does not suggest anything like the 40% cuts that science is saying is needed."

Hill continued: "It proposes a green fund to be run by a board but the big risk is that it will run by the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility [a partnership of 10 agencies including the World Bank and the UN Environment Programme] and not the UN. That would be a step backwards, and it tries to put constraints on developing countries when none were negotiated in earlier UN climate talks."

The text was intended by Denmark and rich countries to be a working framework, which would be adapted by countries over the next week. It is particularly inflammatory because it sidelines the UN negotiating process and suggests that rich countries are desperate for world leaders to have a text to work from when they arrive next week.

Few numbers or figures are included in the text because these would be filled in later by world leaders. However, it seeks to hold temperature rises to 2C and mentions the sum of $10bn a year to help poor countries adapt to climate change from 2012-15.

Footnote: This article was amended on 9th December 2009. The photograph caption was changed to state that the delegate was resting before the start of the second day talks.

• For news and analysis of the UN climate talks in Copenhagen sign up for the Guardian's environment email newsletter Green light

Never been much of a fan of such agreements...but even compared to the Kyoto Protocol...this is a travesty.

 
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